Analyst: ‘Sure looks like’ ag census undercounted corn and soybean acreage

The latest Census of Agriculture, released in February, reported a 2.2% decline in U.S. farmland from 2017 to 2022. A portion of that reduction, involving corn and soybean cropland, may be overstated, says Aaron Smith, a professor of agricultural economics at UC-Davis, in a blog.

Smith looked at states that reported large declines in corn and soybean cropland in the Census of Agriculture and compared their data with cropland reports filed by growers with the Farm Service Agency as a condition of access to USDA farm supports. The ag census figures were lower by 900,000 acres in Illinois, 900,000 acres in South Dakota, and 600,000 acres in Iowa, he says.

“I don’t know what explains this, but it sure looks like the 2022 census significantly undercounted corn and soybean acres in multiple Corn Belt and Great Plains states,” Smith wrote.

The Census of Agriculture, conducted every five years, attempts to contact every known farm. “The source of ag census information is farmers, ranchers, and other producers who are closest to the information,” the National Agricultural Statistics Services says, “so it is the most comprehensive picture available of U.S. agriculture.” The agency uses statistical methodology to offset nonresponses. The response rate for the 2022 census was 61%.