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Underfunding could impact 2020 census, group says

Funding for the 2020 census, adjusted for inflation, is far below the levels Congress approved leading up to each of the three previous decennial censuses, an advocacy group says.

Without that funding, “we can practically predict that it's going to be an inaccurate census,” said Phil Sparks, spokesman for The Census Project.

Members of the Washington, D.C.-based group include business and civic organizations, state and local government groups, community planners, researchers and nonprofits focused on social issues such as housing, family welfare and transportation.

The national census performed every 10 years forms the basis for congressional districts, state legislative boundaries, school board districts and city wards. The count of the country's population also provides the foundation for data sets used to distribute about $600 billion in federal highway, human services and community development programs each year.

An inaccurate count would raise the prospect of people being denied equal representation in Congress and state and local governments, said Brian Lawrence, assistant deputy director of the Westmoreland County planning and development department.

“That's the scariest part,” he said.

Nearly every data set used by government planners and private businesses derives its accuracy from the decennial census, he said. The count also is the basis for community development block grants, affordable and vacant housing programs, human services programs, highway funding and even school funding, he said.

“If we're making decisions on flawed data, nobody wins in that circumstance,” Lawrence said.

To meet a constitutional mandate of obtaining an accurate count, the Census Bureau has to contact about 130 million households and convince them to answer questions on about 325 million people.

Quality-assurance surveys after the 2010 census estimated that it undercounted people in rural areas by about 7.8 percent, Sparks said.

In previous decades, the importance of getting accurate data has led Congress to increase the Census Bureau's budget in the three years preceding the count so it could get ready, he said.

In 1988, 1998 and 2008, Congress increased the bureau's budget an average of 75 percent to fund preparations. President Trump has requested a 2 percent increase for the 2018 budget, and that increase is based on a 2017 budget that was already behind the curve on census funding, Sparks said.

“The administration requested $1.5 billion,” he said. “We believe they need $1.8 billion.”

Since the 2020 census will be the first to rely mainly on the internet instead of the mail for gathering data, funding the prep work takes on an increased importance, Sparks said. Delaying that funding means that adequate preparations in the final two years will cost more than they would have if Congress had followed the normal funding pattern, he said.

The bureau's plan for 2020 includes hiring about 300,000 temporary workers.

The 2010 census came at the end of the recession, which made it relatively easy to hire the people needed to do the legwork, said Chris Briem, a University of Pittsburgh economist.

“I think they're going to be facing a much more difficult time in 2020,” he said.

Brian Bowling is a Tribune-Review staff writer. Reach him at 724-850-1218, bbowling@tribweb.com or via Twitter @TribBrian.