'It's a toss-up': Examining changes in Nebraska District 2 since 2020
While the shape has shifted for Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the voter demographics are mostly the same.
While the shape has shifted for Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the voter demographics are mostly the same.
While the shape has shifted for Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the voter demographics are mostly the same.
As Nebraska gets closer to its 2024 Primary, KETV Investigates is taking a closer look at how the state's Second Congressional District has changed since the last presidential election year.
It's a seat that's been held by Republican Don Bacon since 2017. This year, he faces a Nebraska GOP-endorsed Dan Frei in the Primary, and that winner will face Democrat Tony Vargas in November.
Vargas and Bacon ran a close race in 2022, with Bacon winning by just 6,000 votes.
"Based on who's registered to vote, it's kind of a toss-up," said Josie Schafer, the director of the University of Nebraska-Omaha's Center for Public Affairs Research.
The biggest change to Nebraska's Second District since 2020 is the district's shape.
"Redistricting is a constitutional requirement that after every census, we try to make voting areas as equal in population as possible so we really live up to the idea of one person, one vote," Schafer said.
The Second District lost most of Papillion and La Vista, but added Saunders County.
"We added a lot of Republicans into the district," Schafer said. "But we have a core of folks who register as Democrats in Douglas County. We kept that whole and that's how it balanced out all together."
Saunders County is about 63% Republican, and Douglas County is about 35% Republican.
While the new maps were in play for the 2022 Midterms, this is the first time they'll be used in a presidential election year.
Despite the shapeshift, voter demographics remained relatively the same. KETV Investigates pulled voter registration data over the last four years for the Second District, which showed it remains relatively purple.
November 2020 vs. April 2024 (Nebraska's Second District)
Republicans: 38% vs. 38%
Democrats: 36% vs. 35%
Nonpartisans: 25% vs. 25%
Libertarians: 1.5% vs. 1.5%
Legal Marijuana NOW: (didn't exist) vs. 0.5%
"District Two is very competitive," she said.
The biggest change in the numbers - the Second District has lost 45,000 voters over the last four years. Nebraska's First District, which includes Lincoln, lost about 10,000 voters, and Nebraska's Third District gained about 20,000 voters.
Despite the large swing in total voters between districts, Schafer said it was expected. She attributed it to a trend of rural Nebraskans moving into metropolitan areas like Omaha and Lincoln.
"I think a majority of that is about shifting lines," Schafer said. "Areas that have grown needed to become smaller, but there's not one line to move to solve a problem."
As a whole, Nebraska's down about 40,000 voters since November 2020, but data repeatedly shows registrations always jump as we get closer to a presidential election.
Will the change be enough to send a Democrat back to Congress in Nebraska or turn the state's purple hue in the electoral college completely red?
"Nebraskans tend to be engaged and interested, but as the dynamics of the state changes - population shifts and an older state — turnout among younger and urban voters are things to watch," Schafer said. "They can change elections."